Week of 27 January 2020: Bitcoin +8.32% and Ether +12.23%, still far below their 52-week highs
When two assets rise together for a week while remaining a third to a half below their 52-week highs, what does the price data tell us about the rebound, and what does it leave open?
BTC rose from 8,614.39 to 9,331.51 (+8.32%) and ETH from 167.91 to 188.44 (+12.23%), ranking at the 84th and 87th percentiles of the 102 weeks recorded before. Funding was positive for both all week, averaging 0.0457% per eight hours for BTC. At the close BTC was still 33.16% below its 52-week high, ETH 47.34%.
What the data shows. Both lows came in the same hour, 08:00 UTC on Monday 27 January (BTC 8,535.00, ETH 165.22). BTC then set its high on Thursday 30 January at 20:00 UTC (9,578.00) and drifted lower into Friday, which was the worst day for both (BTC -1.67%, ETH -2.56%). ETH instead set its high on Sunday 2 February at 12:00 UTC (193.43), so ETH finished the week stronger relative to BTC than it started: the ETH/BTC ratio rose 3.6% and ETH led by 3.91 percentage points. Trading volume ran 1.25 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 1.37 times for ETH, on dollar volume of 3.35 billion for BTC and 0.51 billion for ETH. Close location was 76.4% for BTC and 82.3% for ETH, meaning both closed in the upper quarter of their weekly range.
What it does not show. Hourly correlation was 0.79, so the two did not move in lockstep hour by hour, and part of the gap between them may reflect asset-specific moves rather than a single shared trend. Nothing here identifies who was buying or whether the buying was leveraged. Positive funding tells us longs paid shorts, not the size of those positions, and the data has no open-interest figures.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility was 43.3% annualised for BTC and 57.6% for ETH, and the largest hourly move was only 2.64%, so the gains were built steadily rather than in single hours. A desk would compare funding as a carry cost against that steady rise, and check whether the Monday low holds as the week's reference point.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0457% per eight hours with a high of 0.1082%; ETH averaged 0.0566% with a high of 0.132%. Neither rate went negative at any point in the week.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 8,535.00 in a later week, the weekly gain reads as a rebound within a decline rather than a turn.
- If funding stays positive while price stops rising, longs are paying to hold a position that is no longer advancing.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 3.6% gained this week, the outperformance reads as rotation rather than a lasting divergence.
Terms
- close location
- where the closing price sat within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts