Week of 13 January 2020: Ether gains 13.8% while Bitcoin adds 6.31%
When both assets rise in the same week but one gains twice as much, what do the size of the gap, the heavier volume, and Sunday's late reversal say about the move?
BTC rose 6.31% (8,184.97 to 8,701.70) and ETH 13.80% (146.56 to 166.79), the same direction with ETH ahead by 7.49 percentage points. Dollar volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both. Sunday 19 January produced each asset's worst day and its largest hourly move.
What the data shows. Both assets opened near their weekly lows and climbed into the weekend. BTC set its low of 8,055.89 at 12:00 UTC on Monday 13 January and its high of 9,198.98 at 03:00 UTC on Sunday 19 January, a range of 14.19%. ETH's low of 142.27 came at 06:00 UTC on Monday and its high of 179.50 at 14:00 UTC on Saturday 18 January, a range of 26.17%. Tuesday 14 January was the best day for both (BTC +8.63%, ETH +15.36%). Both closes sat in the middle third of their weekly ranges, at 56.5% and 65.9%. Dollar volume ran 1.45 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 1.95 times for ETH. The two moved together but not locked (hourly correlation 0.77), and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 7.05%.
What it does not show. Sunday 19 January gave both assets their worst day (BTC -2.39%, ETH -4.20%), carrying the week's largest hourly moves (-3.95% and -4.41%) in the hour starting 11:00 UTC; BTC's high had come hours earlier that Sunday at 03:00 UTC, while ETH's high was the previous day, 14:00 UTC on Saturday 18 January. Price data does not say why the turn came, who was trading, or whether it continues. Both assets also remain well below their 52-week highs, by 37.67% for BTC and 53.39% for ETH, so this week sits inside a larger decline.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 58.2% for BTC and 91.9% for ETH. The weekly return ranked at the 80th percentile for BTC and the 90th for ETH among the 100 weeks recorded. A desk would test whether its stop distances and margin buffers would have survived the Sunday 11:00 UTC hour, and whether the 7.49 percentage-point gap between the two assets marks a lasting shift or a single week's divergence.
Funding. Perpetual funding was positive throughout: BTC averaged 0.0258% per eight hours with a high of 0.0925%, and ETH averaged 0.0186%. Long positions were paying short ones, a running cost that accumulates for a position held across the week.
What would change this reading
- If ETH continues to outperform BTC in later weeks, this week reads as the start of a shift rather than one week's divergence.
- If a later week trades below BTC's weekly low of 8,055.89 or ETH's 142.27, Sunday's sharp hourly drop reads as a warning rather than a pause.
- If funding stays positive near 0.0258% per eight hours while price stops rising, longs keep paying for a position that is no longer gaining.
- If volume falls back towards the prior twelve-week average, this week's move loses part of its participation support.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which of the two gained or lost ground against the other