Week of 25 November 2019: Bitcoin gains 7.11% after four losing weeks
When a market rises after four straight losing weeks, what in the week's price and volume data supports reading the move as a turn, and what leaves it open?
BTC rose from 6,900.23 to 7,390.89 (+7.11%), its first up week after four consecutive down weeks, while ETH rose from 139.99 to 150.73 (+7.67%). Both set their lows early on Monday 25 November and their highs at 16:00 UTC on Friday 29 November. BTC volume was 1.39 times its prior twelve-week average, but ETH volume was 0.81 times.
What the data shows. BTC fell to its low of 6,515.0 at 05:00 UTC on Monday 25 November, then rose to 7,850.0 at 16:00 UTC on Friday 29 November. The low came before the high, and the close of 7,390.89 sat in the middle third of the week's 20.49% range. The largest hourly move, 3.89%, came at 12:00 UTC on Monday. Ether followed the same path (low 131.45 at 04:00 UTC Monday, high 157.6 at 16:00 UTC Friday) and finished 0.56 percentage points ahead of Bitcoin, so the ETH/BTC ratio gained 0.52%. Hourly correlation was 0.88. BTC dollar volume reached 3.67 billion, 1.39 times its prior twelve-week average. The weekly return ranked at the 83rd percentile of the 93 weeks recorded before it, after prior weeks of -3.5%, -1.71%, -5.95% and -18.81%.
What it does not show. The candles record prices, not motives. Nothing here identifies who bought or whether the buying came from positions closing. A single up week does not establish that the four-week decline has ended, and no week after this one is in the data.
What a careful desk would check. BTC realised volatility (swings actually made, scaled to a yearly figure) was 76.3% and ETH's was 82.5%. The week's range of 20.49% for BTC is much wider than its 7.11% net change, so a position sized on the net return would have faced a larger path. A desk would compare stop distances with the 3.89% hourly move and note that the close sat in the middle third of the range, leaving the week's highs unretested at the end.
Ether against Bitcoin. Ether gained slightly more (+7.67% against +7.11%) on volume 0.81 times its prior twelve-week average, while BTC volume was 1.39 times. ETH funding averaged 0.0004% per eight hours and BTC -0.0005%, both near zero.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's low of 6,515.0, the four-week decline was not interrupted.
- If BTC closes above this week's high of 7,850.0, the move reads as more than a rebound inside a range.
- If ETH volume stays below its prior twelve-week average while BTC volume stays above, the ETH/BTC gain of 0.52% has less activity behind it.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the week, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts