Week of 28 October 2019: Bitcoin closes 34.14% below its 52-week high after a -3.50% week
When both assets close in the lower third of their weekly range, what does the price data say about the balance of the week, and what does it leave unsaid?
BTC fell from 9,528.23 to 9,194.71 (-3.50%) and ETH from 183.84 to 181.54 (-1.25%). Both closed in the lower third of their range. BTC funding stayed positive all week, averaging 0.0293% per eight hours.
What the data shows. BTC reached its weekly high of 9,902.10 in the hour starting 01:00 UTC on Monday 28 October, posted its best day on Tuesday 29 October (+2.21%), then fell to its low of 8,913.00 on Thursday 31 October at 10:00 UTC. The largest hourly move was -2.43%, in the hour starting 23:00 UTC on Monday. ETH took a different path: its high of 192.74 and its largest hourly move (+1.86%) both fell in the hour starting 20:00 UTC on Tuesday 29 October, its best day (+4.84%). The two assets moved close but not in lockstep (hourly correlation 0.74), and ETH lost less than BTC over the week, so the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.33%. Dollar volume was above its prior twelve-week average for both (BTC 1.23 times, ETH 1.05 times).
What it does not show. The candles do not explain why prices fell after an early high. They also cannot show who traded or whether the late-week lows were sold under pressure. BTC sits 34.14% below its 52-week high and ETH 49.27% below, but this week alone cannot say whether those declines continue or reverse.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's return ranked at the 28th percentile of the 89 weeks on record, and both closes landed in the lower third of their range, meaning the week ended near its lows rather than mid-range. After four prior weeks split two up and two down for BTC, a desk would compare the 11.10% BTC range with the current 50.9% annualised realised volatility — the scaled size of recent price swings — to test whether position sizes still fit the swings actually occurring.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding was positive across all readings, averaging 0.0293% per eight hours with a maximum of 0.0784% and a minimum of 0.01%. Every recorded reading this week had long positions paying short ones. ETH funding is not recorded for this week.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 8,913.00 in a later week, the lower-third close reads as a continuation rather than a pause.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps rising after this week's 2.33% gain, ETH's smaller loss becomes a sustained relative strength rather than a one-week difference.
- If funding turns negative while price holds near the weekly low, the cost of holding longs eases and the crowding reading weakens.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive rates mean longs pay shorts
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; a 28th-percentile week means most weeks on record were stronger