Week of 22 July 2019: Bitcoin falls 9.9% and ends in the lower third of its weekly range
When a week's high comes in its first hour and its low in its last, on below-average volume, what does the price path say about the balance between buyers and sellers, and what can it not say?
BTC fell from 10,590.15 to 9,541.54 (-9.90%) and ETH from 225.49 to 211.62 (-6.15%). Both set their weekly high in Monday's first hour and their low at 22:00 UTC on Sunday. Volume was 0.71x (BTC) and 0.49x (ETH) the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly high in the hour beginning 00:00 UTC on Monday 22 July (BTC 10,683.16, ETH 228.34), a touch above their opens of 10,590.15 and 225.49. Both set their lows in the hour beginning 22:00 UTC on Sunday 28 July (BTC 9,165.00, ETH 198.24). Ranges were 16.56% for BTC and 15.18% for ETH. The largest hourly move was -5.02% for BTC and -4.82% for ETH, both in the hour starting 10:00 UTC on Saturday 27 July. The two assets moved closely (hourly correlation 0.90), but ETH fell less, so the ETH/BTC ratio gained 4.16%. Trading was light: BTC dollar volume of 2.67 billion was 0.71 times its prior twelve-week average, ETH's 0.41 billion was 0.49 times. BTC's -9.90% ranked at the 20th percentile of the 75 weeks before it.
What it does not show. The data has no funding values, so it offers no reading on crowding in perpetual contracts. Price candles cannot say who sold, why, or whether the selling was forced. The low arrived in the final hours of the week, so nothing here shows what followed it. Low volume sits beside the decline without explaining it; it is consistent with conviction being scarce on both sides.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 76.2% for BTC and 84.6% for ETH. A position sized for a quieter week can be too large when a -5.02% hour is possible. BTC closed 24.8% of the way up its weekly range, in the lower third, which reads as a market that failed to bounce rather than one that fell and recovered.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH's -6.15% was 3.75 percentage points better than BTC's, and the ratio rose 4.16%. Both assets fell, so this is relative resilience inside a shared decline, not independent strength.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below BTC's low of 9,165.00 or ETH's low of 198.24, this week's lows become a step in a longer decline rather than a floor.
- If volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while price holds above the Sunday lows, the week reads as a quiet retreat rather than the start of heavier selling.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 4.16% gain, ETH's relative resilience this week was temporary.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between the week's low and high, as a percentage