Week of 1 July 2019: Bitcoin rises 5.09% inside a 23.37% range as Ether trails
When Bitcoin swings through a 23.37% weekly range but still closes 5.09% higher, what does the path reveal about the week's risk, and why did Ether lag behind it?
BTC rose from 10,854.10 to 11,406.24 (+5.09%) after touching 9,727.00 on Tuesday and 12,000.00 on Thursday. ETH gained 4.04% to 304.72 but set its high only on Sunday. BTC dollar volume was 2.15 times its prior 12-week average; ETH volume was 0.88 times, below its own average.
What the data shows. BTC traded between 9,727.00 and 12,000.00, a 23.37% range, with the low on Tuesday 2 July at 11:00 UTC and the high on Thursday 4 July at 00:00 UTC. The low preceded the high. The largest hourly move was 5.48%, in the hour starting 14:00 UTC on Tuesday. BTC then posted a best day of +10.10% on Wednesday and gave back 6.65% on Thursday. The close at 11,406.24 sat in the upper third of the week range (73.9%), and BTC remained 18.30% below its 52-week high. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 121.0%.
What it does not show. The data records the path, not the reason for it. Nothing identifies who was buying or selling, or whether Tuesday's low was a turning point rather than a pause. The 74th percentile return among 72 recorded weeks says this was a strong week by that short history, and nothing more.
What a careful desk would check. A 23.37% range means position sizing set on calmer weeks was tested twice in one week: once down to the Tuesday low, then up 23.37% from low to high. A desk would ask whether stops and margins would have survived the Tuesday hour and whether the Thursday reversal changed the week's structure before the close.
Ether against Bitcoin. Both rose in the same direction, with an hourly correlation of 0.84 (close). ETH gained less (+4.04%), so the ETH/BTC ratio fell 1.00%. ETH's range was tighter (13.59%) and its realised volatility lower (87.3%), and it reached its high of 309.69 only late on Sunday, unlike BTC's Thursday peak.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 9,727.00 in a later week, Tuesday's dip reads as the start of a larger move rather than a floor.
- If ETH volume returns above its prior 12-week average while the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling, the lag is active selling of Ether rather than simple quiet.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio turns positive while BTC holds near 12,000.00, the relative weakness of this week has reversed.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin, showing whether Ether is gaining or losing against Bitcoin