Week of 22 April 2019: Bitcoin rises 0.95% while Ether falls 6.37%
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over one week, how much of the gap is timing rather than a lasting divergence, and what should a desk check before treating it as one?
BTC rose from 5,257.41 to 5,307.52 (+0.95%) while ETH fell from 168.59 to 157.85 (-6.37%), a 7.32 percentage-point gap. Both assets set their weekly low at the same hour, 22:00 UTC on Thursday 25 April. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 7.25%.
What the data shows. The two assets shared the week's turning points but not its direction. BTC's high of 5,600.00 came at 04:00 UTC on Tuesday 23 April and its low of 5,102.00 at 22:00 UTC on Thursday 25 April; ETH's high of 175.83 and low of 150.35 fell in nearly the same hours. Thursday was the worst day for both (BTC -3.6%, ETH -6.11%), and the largest hourly move landed in that same late-UTC hour (BTC -3.21%, ETH -3.13%). Hourly correlation was 0.84, close but not locked. BTC dollar volume was 1.46 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH dollar volume for the week was 0.38 billion, about equal to its own prior twelve-week average. BTC closed in the middle third of its weekly range, ETH in the lower third. Of the four weeks before this one, three were up and one was down for both assets, led by a 26.03% BTC week and a 23.19% ETH week.
What it does not show. The data records that ETH fell faster and held lower; it does not say why the two separated. A 7.32 percentage-point return gap can reflect position adjustments, thinner books, or a single large flow, and none of these are visible here. The 0.84 correlation also cannot tell us whether the gap persists or closes next week. No funding data was available for this week, so the cost of holding either side cannot be read from this file.
What a careful desk would check. ETH was 81.2% below its 52-week high against 46.74% for BTC, so the two sit at very different distances from prior peaks; a ratio move of -7.25% means something different from each base. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 31st percentile of its 62 recorded weeks, BTC's at the 50th. A desk would ask whether the Thursday 22:00 hour, which produced both the low and the largest hourly drop, could have been exited at size in either market.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio recovers most of the 7.25% drop in a later week, this week reads as a short-lived gap rather than a lasting re-rating.
- If Ether falls faster than Bitcoin again while its volume stays near the 0.99-times average, the divergence is being driven by selling rather than by Bitcoin strength.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 5,102.00, Thursday's hour marks the start of a leg lower rather than a one-day shock.
- If ETH closes a later week back above its open of 168.59, the lower-third close looks like a dip that was repaired.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether measured in Bitcoin; a fall means Ether is losing value relative to Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 31st percentile means 31% of the 62 recorded weeks were lower
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1