Week of 1 April 2019: Bitcoin gains 26.03%, a 98th-percentile week of 59
When a market posts one of its strongest weekly gains in 59 weeks of recorded history, what do the price and volume data establish, and what do they leave unexplained?
BTC rose from 4,102.44 to 5,170.27 (+26.03%) and ETH from 141.41 to 174.21 (+23.19%), ranking at the 98th and 97th percentiles of 59 weeks of history. Dollar volume ran 2.76 times BTC's and 2.27 times ETH's prior 12-week average. Both closed in the upper third of their weekly ranges.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly lows at the very start of the week, 00:00 UTC on Monday 1 April, then advanced: BTC's low of 4,067.00 came before its high of 5,275.01 on Wednesday 3 April at 21:00 UTC, a range of 29.70%. The largest BTC hourly move, +7.63%, fell in the hour beginning 04:00 UTC on Tuesday 2 April, inside the best day of the week (BTC +17.20%, ETH +15.63%). ETH's largest hourly move was -5.50% late on Wednesday 3 April. The two assets moved closely but not in lockstep (hourly correlation 0.73), and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 2.25%, so BTC led. The four prior weeks were all positive for BTC (2.88%, 1.66%, 0.26%, 2.82%), so the jump arrived after a slow climb rather than from a standstill.
What it does not show. Price and volume cannot say what drove the buying or who did it. Both markets remained far below their 52-week highs, by 48.12% for BTC and 79.25% for ETH, so a large weekly gain and a deep standing decline can both be true. The data contains no funding or open-interest values for this week, so leveraged positioning cannot be assessed here.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 88.2% for BTC and 110.8% for ETH. BTC closed 91.3% of the way up its weekly range, showing demand held into the close rather than fading. A desk would ask whether volume of 2.76 times the prior 12-week average marks a durable change in participation or a single week's burst, which only later weeks can settle.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH gained 23.19% against BTC's 26.03%, leaving ETH 2.84 percentage points behind and pushing the ratio down 2.25%.
What would change this reading
- If later weeks hold gains while volume falls back towards its prior 12-week average, this week reads as a one-off burst of demand.
- If a later week trades below this week's low of 4,067.00 for BTC or 139.57 for ETH, the advance did not establish a floor.
- If ETH's weekly gains begin to exceed BTC's, the 2.25% ratio decline marks a rotation that has reversed.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile of range
- where the close fell within the week's low-to-high span; 91.3 means it closed near the top
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1