Week of 18 February 2019: Bitcoin ends up 2.07% after a Sunday reversal, Ether down 1.25%
When both assets peak and then collapse inside the final day of the week, what does the weekly return hide, and what should a desk carry into the following week?
BTC rose from 3,667.62 to 3,743.56 (+2.07%) while ETH fell from 133.77 to 132.10 (-1.25%). Sunday 24 February was the worst day for both (BTC -9.09%, ETH -16.26%) after highs at 03:00 UTC. Both closed in the lower third of their weekly ranges, on volume above the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. BTC's low of 3,655.00 came in the first hour on Monday 18 February, and the week's high of 4,198.00 arrived at 03:00 UTC on Sunday 24 February. Both assets then reversed on the final day: Sunday was the worst day for both (BTC -9.09%, ETH -16.26%), and the largest hourly move fell in the hour starting 14:00 UTC that day, -7.68% for BTC and -13.13% for ETH. BTC still closed the week at 3,743.56, up 2.07%; ETH closed at 132.10, down 1.25%. Dollar volume reached 1.18 billion for BTC and 0.75 billion for ETH, running at 1.15 and 1.87 times their prior twelve-week averages respectively. Hourly correlation was 0.91, yet the ETH/BTC ratio fell 3.25%.
What it does not show. The candles record where prices went, not why. The input has no funding data for this week, so leverage in perpetual futures cannot be assessed here. It does not say who bought on Monday or who sold on Sunday, and nothing in it establishes what followed. Close location of 16.3% for BTC and 1.2% for ETH places both closes in the lower third of their ranges; that describes the week's shape, not a direction.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 74.0% for BTC and 134.4% for ETH. ETH's range was 26.04% against BTC's 14.86%, so limits sized on BTC alone understate the swing. A desk would test whether stops and margin buffers survive a 7.68% or 13.13% hourly move, and would weigh the week against BTC standing 67.92% below its 52-week high and ETH 85.22% below.
Ether against Bitcoin. Both rose on Monday 18 February (best day: BTC +6.30%, ETH +8.91%) and both peaked in the same Sunday hour. ETH then fell harder, so its stronger Monday did not survive the reversal. With correlation at 0.91 this reads as one broad move in which the weaker asset gave back more.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 3,655.00 in a later week, the Sunday reversal reads as the start of a renewed decline rather than a failed rally.
- If ETH continues to fall faster than BTC and the ETH/BTC ratio drops further from its -3.25% change, the divergence has become a relative move rather than a shared one.
- If a later week closes back above the Sunday highs of 4,198.00 for BTC and 166.00 for ETH, the final-day collapse reads as a spike that was absorbed.
- If weekly returns stay near this week's 58th percentile (BTC) and 53rd percentile (ETH) of the 53 weeks recorded, the week is unremarkable in context despite its intraweek swings.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the closing price sits within the week's high-to-low range; a low value means the close sat near the week's low
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from a value meaning opposite moves to a value meaning identical moves