Week of 4 February 2019: Ether rises 16.58% against Bitcoin's 6.42% on light volume
When a long-suffering market rises for one week on below-average volume, how much of the move is Ether leading rather than the whole market turning?
BTC rose from 3,458.11 to 3,680.06 (+6.42%), ETH from 107.33 to 125.12 (+16.58%). Both posted their best day on Friday 8 February. Weekly dollar volume was $0.70bn for BTC and $0.24bn for ETH, running at 0.58 and 0.55 times their prior twelve-week averages, and both assets remained deep below their 52-week highs.
What the data shows. BTC set its low of 3,373.10 at 02:00 UTC on Friday 8 February, then its high of 3,733.58 fourteen hours later, giving a weekly range of 10.69% and a best day of +7.67%. ETH followed a wider path: a low of 101.21 early on Wednesday 6 February and a high of 126.49 at 23:00 UTC on Sunday 10 February, a range of 24.98%. Both assets made their largest hourly move in the hour starting 16:00 UTC on Friday (+5.12% BTC, +5.86% ETH), and both closed near their weekly highs (close location 85.2% and 94.6% of range). The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.84), but ETH gained more, so the ETH/BTC ratio rose 9.54%.
What it does not show. The data gives no funding figures for this week, so it says nothing about positioning in perpetual contracts. It also cannot say whether the volume thinness reflects apathy, tight supply or simply a market not yet responding. The prior four weeks were mixed for BTC (two up, two down) and mostly lower for ETH (three down), so this week reads as a rebound from a decline rather than a confirmed change in direction, and the data cannot confirm which it is.
What a careful desk would check. A +16.58% weekly return sits at the 96th percentile of the 51 weeks of history recorded, but that sample is short. Both assets remain 68.61% (BTC) and 87.14% (ETH) below their 52-week highs. A desk would compare this week's thin volume with prior rebound weeks, and would look at how much activity fell in the Friday hour that produced BTC's high and the largest hourly move for both assets, since weekly volume ran below the prior twelve-week average.
What would change this reading
- If volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average in later weeks while prices hold above this week's highs, the move gains a participation base it does not yet have.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 3,373.10, the Friday reversal reads as a failed rebound rather than the start of a trend.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back part of its 9.54% gain, the week's outperformance was rotation within a flat market rather than an Ether-specific shift.
- If a later week records lower highs while the ratio keeps rising, Ether's lead is coming from BTC weakness rather than independent strength.
Terms
- close location
- where the week's final price sits between the week's low and high, as a percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a smaller move; the 96th percentile means 96% of recorded weeks were weaker
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether measured in Bitcoin, showing which of the two gained more