Concept · example: ETH, week of 10 September 2018

Maximum adverse excursion

How far did a position move against its holder during the week, before the final result was known?

In plain words

Maximum adverse excursion is the largest move a position made against its holder at any point before it finished. For a long bought at the week's open, it is how far the price fell below that entry, measured at the worst moment, regardless of where the week ended.

Why it matters

A weekly gain can hide a large temporary loss. Maximum adverse excursion sizes the pain a holder had to sit through, which determines whether a position survives to the outcome or is closed, liquidated or stopped out before it can recover.

In a real week: ETH, week of 10 September 2018

For a long entered at ETH's open of 196.13 in the week of 10 September 2018, the week's low was 167.32 on Wednesday at 08:00 UTC, well below the entry, an adverse excursion suffered before the outcome was known. ETH then recovered: it closed at 220.17 on Sunday, a 12.26% weekly return, with the high of 227.42 reached Saturday at 17:00 UTC, after the low.

A common mistake

Judging a trade only by its ending return. Two positions with the same weekly gain can differ sharply in the drawdown each holder had to endure before getting there.

Related ideas

maximum favourable excursiondrawdownposition sizingstop loss

Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.

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