Concept · example: ETH, week of 22 October 2018

Hourly shock

How much of a whole week's price move can be packed into a single hour, and what does that tell you about how the week unfolded?

In plain words

An hourly shock is an unusually large price change inside one hour. Comparing the biggest hourly move with the week's net return shows whether the week's outcome was built gradually or decided in a brief burst of trading.

Why it matters

A week that ends nearly flat can still contain a large one-hour swing. A weekly net return gives no indication of how far price travelled inside the week, so it does not describe the internal moves a position experienced.

In a real week: ETH, week of 22 October 2018

In the week of 22 October 2018, ETH fell 1.19% from open to close, with a total range of 3.54%. Its largest single-hour move was 2.14%, recorded at 08:00 UTC on Friday 26 October — larger than the net weekly move. That hour coincided with the week's best day, which gained 0.53%. The week closed in the middle third of its range, and volume was below its prior 12-week average.

A common mistake

Reading a small weekly return as a quiet week. A net change near zero can hide hourly swings larger than the net change itself, so the weekly figure alone does not describe the week's internal moves.

Related ideas

realised volatilityintraday rangeclose location

Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.

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