Concept · example: BTC, week of 4 May 2020

Continuous trading risk

When a market never closes, how does that change the way price risk builds up for anyone holding a position?

In plain words

Continuous trading means a market trades around the clock, every day, with no closing bell and no scheduled overnight break. A position can be repriced at any hour, including weekends and holidays, so exposure is live whenever the holder is asleep or away.

Why it matters

In markets with a daily close, gaps can form between sessions, but losses are also contained within set hours. In a never-closing market, a position can move through several time zones' worth of headlines and trading before the owner can act, so risk management has to assume there is no pause.

In a real week: BTC, week of 4 May 2020

In the week of 2020-05-04, BTC traded in a 24.02% range, with its high at 10067.0 on 2020-05-07 23:00 UTC (Thu) and its low at 8117.0 on 2020-05-10 00:00 UTC (Sun). The largest single hourly move, -8.76%, also struck at 2020-05-10 00:00 UTC (Sun), and the worst day, -8.56%, was 2020-05-10. The sharpest repricing landed on a weekend, outside any traditional session.

A common mistake

Assuming a quiet period on one calendar day means risk has paused. Trading continues across all hours, so the largest move can arrive when least attention is paid.

Related ideas

realised volatilitygap riskdrawdownposition sizing

Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.

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