ETH rose 8.00% across a 16.79% range — did the signal survive, or did it ride a run?
Should the research team count this week as a live confirmation of its ETH signal at current size, or raise conviction because price closed in the upper third of the range?
The market facts are real; the decision maker is illustrative.
The week and the position
In the week of 2 December 2024, ETH rose 8.00%, from 3,707.61 to 4,004.15, inside a 16.79% range: a low of 3,500.00 on Tuesday at 14:00 UTC and a high of 4,087.73 on Friday at 20:00 UTC. The best day, 4 December, added 6.18%; the worst, 2 December, lost 1.73%. Realised volatility ran at 64.2% annualised, dollar volume of 17.73bn was 2.22 times the prior 12-week average, and the close sat at 85.8% of the range, 1.56% below the 52-week high. Three of the prior four weeks were up, including 29.52%.
Judgment
One week cannot separate a signal from the run it happened to land in. Three of the prior four weeks were up, this week's 8.00% return sits at the 76th percentile of 355 weeks, and 6.18 of the gain came on a single day, so a delayed entry would have missed most of it. Keep the signal live at its current size, and score it as one observation, not as confirmation. Separate the ETH-specific component — the ratio gained 3.81% while correlation with BTC was a loose 0.68 — from the shared directional move before crediting either part.
What would change it
Raise size only if the signal fires again in a week that does not follow three up weeks in four, or if ETH closes back below the 3,707.61 weekly open, which would show this week's close to have been carried by the range rather than by the signal.
What sets this case apart
The decision is about independence of evidence in a streak, not about whether the week was profitable.