A 29.04% weekly range in a reserve that must be reported at quarter-end
Should the treasury keep the full ETH reserve allocation into the quarterly report, or trim it and stop adding until price stabilises and the reserve is sized for hourly moves?
The market facts are real; the decision maker is illustrative.
The week and the position
In the week of 5 August 2024, ETH fell 4.97%, from 2,688.91 to 2,555.38, with a 29.04% range: a low of 2,111.00 at 01:00 UTC on Monday, a -8.21% hour and a -10.02% worst day, then a +14.50% best day on Thursday and a weekly high of 2,724.10. Realised volatility reached 127.0% annualised, dollar volume was 13.17 billion, 1.77 times the prior 12 weeks, and funding averaged -0.0017% per eight hours. ETH lost 5.92 percentage points against BTC. The reserve sits 37.18% below its 52-week high, after two negative weeks of -7.52% and -17.77%.
Judgment
Keep the existing reserve and do not sell into a week this violent, but stop adding and cut the target size. A reserve reported quarterly must survive a single hour, not a weekly average: an 8.21% hour and a 29.04% range mean the position can move materially between reports. Size the holding so no obligation forces a sale at a price set by Monday's low, and hold the remainder in assets that do not swing 14.50% in a day. Accept that the reported carrying value will keep swinging with these weeks.
What would change it
If a later week closes above the Thursday high of 2,724.10 and ETH stops losing against BTC, additions can resume at the original target. If weekly ranges stay near 29.04% or the ETH-BTC ratio keeps falling from -5.86%, trim the reserve further.
What sets this case apart
The choice is about sizing a reserve to hourly moves that a quarterly report cannot smooth, not about forecasting ETH's direction.