A fifth up week leaves a fixed crypto sleeve overweight at the week's upper third
Should the allocator trim the crypto sleeve back to its fixed target after a fifth consecutive up week, or let the overweight ride on momentum and positive funding?
The market facts are real; the decision maker is illustrative.
The week and the position
In the week of 4 March 2024, ETH rose 11.2% from 3487.8 to 3878.47, its fifth consecutive up week (four prior weeks up, none down), closing at 85.5% of the range, in the upper third. The week spanned 24.8%, from a low of 3200.0 on Tuesday at 19:00 UTC to a high of 3993.75 on Friday at 15:00 UTC, with a -6.52% hour at that low. Dollar volume was 18.21bn, 2.49 times the prior 12-week average; realised volatility was 89.6% annual. Perpetual funding averaged 0.0443% per eight hours. An illustrative allocator runs a small fixed crypto sleeve inside a larger fund.
Judgment
Trim the sleeve back to its fixed weight and do not add. The mandate sets the weight, and a fifth straight up week, at the 82nd percentile of 316 weeks, has pushed the sleeve above it; restoring the authorised weight is the rule, not a forecast. The 24.8% range and the -6.52% hour show the sleeve can move sharply between rebalances, and positive funding means the long sleeve pays to hold. Accept giving up further upside in exchange for the weight the fund authorised.
What would change it
If the mandate permits a band around the fixed weight and this week's sleeve value stayed inside that band, the trim can wait for the next scheduled rebalance. If ETH closes back below the week's open of 3487.8, the overweight has already unwound and a trim becomes a cost rather than a rule.
What sets this case apart
A fixed-weight mandate meets a fifth up week: the decision is about restoring an authorised weight, not about forecasting whether the rally continues.