A fifth straight down week ends with a 13.41% Sunday rebound a trend short must absorb
Should the fund carry its short ETH signal at full size into the next weekly rebalance, or cut it after Sunday's 13.41% rebound and the middle-third close?
The market facts are real; the decision maker is illustrative.
The week and the position
In the week of 13 June 2022, ETH fell 21.35%, from 1,434.84 to 1,128.53, its fifth consecutive down week after prior returns of -4.76%, -11.23%, -0.41% and -20.56%. Realised volatility ran at 203.7% annualised, the range was 65.05%, and the market traded 76.72% below its 52-week high on volume 1.75 times the prior 12-week average. The worst day was Monday at -15.68%; the best was Sunday at +13.41%, including a 7.15% hour. Funding averaged -0.007% per eight hours, and ETH beat BTC by 1.23 percentage points.
Judgment
The trend signal is intact: the close sits far below the open, the market is 76.72% below its 52-week high, and every one of the prior four weeks was down. Keep the short at the next rebalance, but size it from the 203.7% annualised realised volatility, not from calmer weeks, because Sunday's 13.41% day and 7.15% hour show what a short loses intraday. Near-zero funding means the position costs almost nothing to carry. Accept the rebound as the signal's ordinary price.
What would change it
A weekly close back above this week's open of 1,434.84, or two consecutive weeks that fail to print a lower low, ends the short signal. If 8-hour funding falls below this week's -0.0292% minimum and stays there, the carry cost rises and the position should be reduced.
What sets this case apart
This is not re-entry after a forced cut; it is sizing a live trend short against a violent rebound day while carry costs are near zero.