A 50.89% weekly range turns one daily receipt conversion into a single price bet
Should the payments company keep converting each day's receipts at one fixed time, or split each day's amount across several hours to avoid one price print in a 50.89% range?
The market facts are real; the decision maker is illustrative.
The week and the position
In the week of 16 March 2020, ETH fell 1.21% to close at 122.32, inside a 50.89% range: a low of 101.10 on Monday 10:00 UTC, where the week's largest 1-hour move of -6.18% also occurred, and a high of 152.55 on Friday 10:00 UTC. The worst day lost 10.34% (Monday) and the best gained 15.40% (Thursday). Realised annualised volatility was 177.8%, volume was 1.57 times the prior 12-week average, and the close sat mid-range. Three of the previous four weeks were down, and ETH lagged BTC by 9.71 percentage points.
Judgment
A single daily conversion prices the whole day's receipts on one arbitrary hour, and this week one hour could move 6.18% against the hour before it, while the week's best day gained 15.40% and its worst day lost 10.34%. Split each day's receipts into several equal conversions spread across the full 24 hours, giving more weight to the mid-UTC session where both the week's low and high printed. Accept the extra execution steps and slightly higher cost, and accept that timing splits do not offset the -1.21% week or the 9.71-point shortfall against BTC.
What would change it
If the weekly range and the largest 1-hour move contract towards the levels of the four prior weeks for several consecutive weeks, one daily conversion regains its cost advantage and the split can be dropped. If ETH stops losing ground to BTC at this pace, the case for pausing conversions weakens.
What sets this case apart
The question is not direction but print frequency: when one hour can move 6.18% while the net week is only -1.21%, the timing of a routine conversion becomes the dominant risk.