An 8.79% trend on quiet hours and 0.164% funding spikes tests a symmetric quote
Should the desk keep two-sided quotes at its normal spread and inventory limit, or skew the ask side up and cut the limit through a week that gained 8.79%?
The market facts are real; the decision maker is illustrative.
The week and the position
In the week of 3 February 2020, BTC rose 8.79% to close 10,151.75, at 98.7% of the week's range and 27.28% below its 52-week high, on 3.51 billion dollars of volume (1.28 times the prior 12 weeks). Hourly moves stayed mild — the largest was -1.41% — while realised vol was 36.1% annualised and the range 11.8%. Perpetual funding averaged 0.0571% per eight hours, peaking at 0.164%. Four prior weeks were mostly up. An illustrative market-making desk quotes both sides and must hold small inventory.
Judgment
Keep quoting both sides, but stop quoting them symmetrically. Skew the ask side up and lower the bid during a rising week that closed at the top of its range, and set the inventory limit from the -1.41% hour, since that hour understates how far price travelled across the week. The 0.164% funding peak pays a short inventory, but that same perp demand signals buyers who can run the book over. Accept fewer fills and thinner margin per trade.
What would change it
If a week closes back below the 9,331.59 open, or two weeks pass with volume under the prior-12-week average and hourly moves near zero, symmetric quoting and the normal inventory limit can resume. If funding's 0.01% minimum repeats, the funding case for short inventory disappears.
What sets this case apart
A quiet largest hour coexisted with an 11.8% weekly range; the desk's skew must follow the trend and funding, not the hourly calm.